BAYESIAN POISSON VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELLING OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE PREVALENCE OF AIDS RELATED DISEASES IN PSSH JOS NIGERIA

Nigeria is the most populous country in sub-Saharan Africa, with a high burden of both TB and HIV/AIDS. As a result of immunodeficiency those with HIV/AIDS encounter, they are susceptible to various coinfectious diseases. This project work examined the trend of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Hepatitis coinfections in Nigeria. Annual data from 2003 -2018 was sourced from the Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH), Jos and the methods of analysis Bayesian Poisson Autoregressive Model which encompasses PAR and PEWMA models. The results revealed a significant annual decrease of 23.9% and 4% in Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS respectively. Furthermore, the results showed a significant annual increase of 46% in Hepatitis. Also a strong relationship exists between TB and HIV/AIDS as a rise in HIV/AIDS increases the risk of contracting TB. Similarly, there is significant rise in HIV/AIDS by 0.85% when TB increases, but hepatitis has no such effect on HIV/AIDS and vice versa. Finally, the decomposition of the forecast error shows that HIV cases is compounded by TB at the rate of 14.1%. Also worthy of note from the data set that TB contributes to hepatitis largely with 89.2%. This project recommends that intensive effort should be made by government to reduce Hepatitis cases in the state while additional efforts be put in place to put an end to the menace of HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis