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  • ItemOpen Access
    A STUDY OF MOTHER-TO-CHILD TRANSMISSION OF HIV IN NASARAWA STATE USING LOGISTIC, POISSON AND NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION MODELS
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI, 2019-07-13) David, Usman
    In Sub-Saharan African Countries such as Nigeria with high prevalence rate, Child HIV/AIDs acquired through Mother-to-Child transmission (MTCT) can be largely prevented by using a well-established prevention programme and scheme. This study examined factors that can enhance Prevention of Mother-to-Child transmission (PMTCT) in Nasarawa State. To achieve this, structured questionnaire were used to collect data from one hundred and sixteen (116) women attending two (2) primary facilities and two (2) secondary facilities in the State. This study utilized methods of Poisson Regression, Negative Binomial Regression and Logistic Regression Analyses. Results revealed that women with at least a secondary school education, women with husband in military and women with perceived confidentiality of their HIV status significantly enhanced PMTCT of HIV in Nasarawa State while significant proportion of the women attest to the fact that drugs are available in the facilities (p-value=0.0000<0.05) . Other factors include mother income level, willingness to continue with PMTCT programmed and women in support group can also enhanced PMTCT though they are not significant. This study recommends that the factors identified should be explored by NGOs, Ministry of Health and, Support groups and other relevant agencies since they have the capacity to enhanced PMTCT of HIV in Nasarawa State, Nigeria
  • ItemOpen Access
    SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF INFLATION RATES IN NIGERIA
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2019-12-12) Odunukwe, Adaora Darlingtina
    Nigeria faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem somehow slows down the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in Africa including Nigeria. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Nigeria becomes very important for the government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in the country. This study utilizes seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) to forecast inflation rates in Nigeria. Using monthly inflation data from January 1999 to December 2018, we discover that SARIMA ( ) ( ) can represent very well the data behaviour of inflation rate in Nigeria. Based on the selected model i.e. SARIMA ( 1,1,1) (0,0,1) we obtained at twelve (12) month forecast of inflation rates in Nigeria outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2019 to December 2019). The forecast results show a decreasing pattern and the accuracy of forecasts measure showed that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 3.56% and Theil‟s inequality coefficient (U-statistic) is 0.018
  • ItemOpen Access
    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD CRASHES IN NIGERIA [A CASE STUDY OF LAFIA MAKURDI HIGHWAY]
    (Department of Statistics,Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-08-12) Suleian, Umar
    This project examines the reported cases of road crashes in Nigeria using Lafia – Makurdi road as a case study for the period of 2002 to 2016. The method used in the data collection was secondary method. Time series and t- test were used to analyze the data. The result of the analysis showed that there is decrease in reported cases of cars crashes and increase in reported cases of buses clashes. From the t- test, it shows that there is significant difference between the reported cases of cars and buses that have crashes. It is therefore , recommended that; the Government should extend the road safety campaigns to every nook and cranny, as this will enlighten our people more on the risk of not maintaining discipline on the road when driving, the construction of Lafia - Markudi double lane should be done as a matter of urgency in other to reduce the rate of road crashes in that area, and visible traffic sign code should be placed in strategic area to help instruct road users.
  • ItemOpen Access
    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ON SELECTED TUBER CROPS IN NIGERIA
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2019-10-14) Aminu, Asambe Dantani
    This study on statistical analysis employed vector error correction (VEC) model to identify the effect of climatic variability on agricultural crops production in Nigeria. Johanson co-integration test is used to investigate the existence of long run relationship among climate variables and crop production. Argumented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to establish the integration order of the climate variables and crops production. The secondary data was obtain from NBS and World Bank website from 1980 to 2017. The outcome of this research shows that all the variables are stationary at first difference. (Johanson co-integration test, show a long – run relationship), hence the VECM revealed that rainfall and temperature have a positive effect on cassava production, cocoyam and yam. Hence the study concludes that high temperature and rainfall will improve the productions of cassava, cocoyam and yam in Nigeri
  • ItemOpen Access
    BAYESIAN POISSON VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELLING OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE PREVALENCE OF AIDS RELATED DISEASES IN PSSH JOS NIGERIA
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI, 2019-12-04) Fagbemi, Esther Temidayo
    Nigeria is the most populous country in sub-Saharan Africa, with a high burden of both TB and HIV/AIDS. As a result of immunodeficiency those with HIV/AIDS encounter, they are susceptible to various coinfectious diseases. This project work examined the trend of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Hepatitis coinfections in Nigeria. Annual data from 2003 -2018 was sourced from the Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH), Jos and the methods of analysis Bayesian Poisson Autoregressive Model which encompasses PAR and PEWMA models. The results revealed a significant annual decrease of 23.9% and 4% in Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS respectively. Furthermore, the results showed a significant annual increase of 46% in Hepatitis. Also a strong relationship exists between TB and HIV/AIDS as a rise in HIV/AIDS increases the risk of contracting TB. Similarly, there is significant rise in HIV/AIDS by 0.85% when TB increases, but hepatitis has no such effect on HIV/AIDS and vice versa. Finally, the decomposition of the forecast error shows that HIV cases is compounded by TB at the rate of 14.1%. Also worthy of note from the data set that TB contributes to hepatitis largely with 89.2%. This project recommends that intensive effort should be made by government to reduce Hepatitis cases in the state while additional efforts be put in place to put an end to the menace of HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis
  • ItemOpen Access
    MODELLING INFLATION RATE AS A FUNCTION OF INTEREST RATE, EXCHANGE RATE AND FUEL PRICE IN NIGERIA USING AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2019-12-11) Haruna, Muhammed.
    High rate of inflation and hyperinflation are described as economic situation when an increase in the money supply is growing faster than the new production of goods and services in the economy. This study investigated the determinants of inflation in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. Annual data from 1982 to 2016 was collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin on inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate and fuel price. Evidence from the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test revealed that inflation and interest rates are stationary at level while exchange rate and fuel price are stationary at first difference. ARDL(1,2,2,2) model, i.e. lag 1 for inflation rate, lag 2 for interest rate, lag 2 for exchange rate and lag 2 for fuel price respectively was emerged as the optimal model among competing ARDL models using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Bounding testing suggested long run relationship among the macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, the long run relationships revealed that interest rate and fuel price are positively related to inflation rate but only interest was significant while exchange rate is negatively and significantly related to inflation in Nigeria. Some short run relationships were presented in the short run ARDL model and the ECM coefficient was -1.653343 (p-value=0.000<0.05) which means the speed of the rate of adjustment at the previous year is very high of about 165.33%. The estimated ARDL model was free from serial correlation and heteroscedasticity problems while the residual was normally distributed and the model shown a stable process. This study recommended that economy policy that support low interest rate and fuel price should be implemented in order to reduce the burden of inflation rate on the Nigerian Economy
  • ItemOpen Access
    AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELING OF THE EFFECTS OF SOME MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2019-11-05) Ojo, Olalekan Rotimi
    This study examined the relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. It also determines the effects of inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. The objective of the study is to analyse the impact of the macroeconomic variables on economic growth and proffer recommendations towards enhancing economic growth and to reduce the distasteful effects of inflation rate, unemployment and interest rate in Nigeria. This study applies a linear dynamic model Auto regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of the economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1984 and 2017 using annual secondary data. The empirical results show that there is long-run relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. Only unemployment rate has a significant effect on real gross domestic product per capita in the long-run, which implies that, a 1% increase in unemployment leads to 43% increase in real gross domestic product per capita. Also, results from the short-run error correction model show a negative significant effect of inflation rate on economic growth which indicate that a 1% increase in inflation rate lead to 1.35% decrease in real gross domestic product per capita. The Error Correction Term (ECT) shows a speed of adjustment of 13.26% between the short-run disequilibrium and long term equilibrium. The study therefore recommends for sustainable economic growth, the need to formulate policies to increase the level of output, reduce unemployment through the adoption of labour intensive technique of production, entrepreneurship development and policy to keep the inflation rate at a low rate (single digit)
  • ItemOpen Access
    BUDGET ALLOCATION FOR OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE OF A UNIVERSITY THROUGH ADJUSTED-PROGRAM-BUDGET MARGINALANALYSIS
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2019-03-01) Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    Sesuatu perancangan strategik yang dibangunkan oleh universiti-universiti di serata dunia, termasuk di Malaysia, digunakan sebagai indikator utama kemajuan menggunakan petunjuk-petunjuk prestasi utama (KPIs) dalam mencapai dan memperlengkap universiti dengan cabaran keperluan pendidikan di alaf ini. Malangnya sesetengah universiti merangka strategi khusus bagi mencapai KPIs mereka tanpa mengambil kira kekangan sumber-sumber yang ada. Secara khususnya, kos dan kos marginal ke arah pencapaian KPIs kurang diberi tumpuan. Justeru, kajian ini mencadangkan pelaksanaan program analisis marginal bajet terlaras (PBMA terlaras), satu pendekatan yang digunapakai dengan sedikit pengubahsuaian pada PBMA yang sedia ada, untuk mengimbangi keduadua output kewangan dan kualiti secara telus ke arah peruntukan bajet sedia ada yang lebih baik bagi mencapai KPIs. Pertamanya, persamaan di antara langkah-langkah di bawah PBMA dan langkah-langkah yang telibat dalam merangka pelan strategik bagi sesebuah universiti dikenalpasti. Kemudian, beberapa pengubahsuaian dilakukan dengan mencadangkan penggunaan kos marginal dan analisis kos akibat bagi menggantikan pendekatan kualitatif sedia ada dalam menentukan keutamaan strategi, serta penggunaan model pengaturcaraan integer (Model IP) untuk proses pengagihan bajet. Hasilnya adalah satu cadangan model yang baharu iaitu PBMA terlaras. Untuk mengilustrasi kebolehgunaan model PBMA terlaras ini, satu kajian kes berkaitan agenda pembangunan pelajar di Universiti Utara Malaysia bagi mencapai tahap enam bintang dalam penarafan SETARA telah dilaksanakan. Enam model IP yang sesuai telah dibentuk. Keputusan optimum telah diperoleh, dibincang, dan dibuat perbandingan. PBMA terlaras ini adalah bermanfaat dan sesuai untuk organisasi-organisasi berorientasikan program yang berKPIs dan mempunyai bajet yang terhad
  • ItemOpen Access
    TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE MONTHY PRODUCTION OF GLASS BOTTLES (A CASE STUDY OF BETA GLASS PLC, UGHELI, 2005-2015)
    (Department Of Statistics, Faculty Of Natural And Applied Science, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, 2019-11-10) Ogbewey, Justice Columbus
    The project work captured brief introduction to Beta Glass pic, glass bottle, Data, methods and forecasting. The basis of the research work is to carry out time series analysis on the monthly production of glass bottle using beta glass pic as a case study. R programming language was used to carry out the analysis and forecasting of Beta Glass monthly production for 11 years (2005 - 2015). Upon the completion of the research work the piece was aesthetically pleasing because of the method of the result.
  • ItemOpen Access
    A STUDY OF THE KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDE AND PRACTICE OF ADULTS TOWARD MOTORCYCLE AS A MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. (A CASE STUDY OF SULEJA METROPOLIS)
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2020-03-12) Ezra, Babatunde Oluwaseyi
    This project work is set out to study the knowledge, attitude and practice of adults toward motorcycle as a means of transportation. To know the major reasons for adopting it and also determine their attitude toward taking up safety measures during the transportation with a view of making recommendations on ways of reducing the associated road traffic accidents. A cross sectional descriptive survey was carried out using administration of structured j questionnaires for data collection. Statistical Package for Social Scientist (SPSS) version 25.0 was used to analyse the data collected and to generate frequency distribution on socio-demography data and accident profiles of the respondents. Chi-square independent test was used to determine whether good orientation, use of helmet and other safety measures will reduce accident associated with motorcycle.
  • ItemOpen Access
    SIMULATION STUDY OF ERROR CORRECTION MODEL AND AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL FOR SKEWED DISTRIBUTIONS.
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2018-08-04) Alemho, Joseph Elekhekhatse
    This study performed simulation study of the Error Correction Model (ECM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model on non-normally distributed data with the aim of comparing the performances. The study utilized both simulated data and the real life data on inflation rate and unemployment rate in Nigeria from a period of 1981 to 2016. Data was simulated from the uniform and exponential distribution. The Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) test the real life data revealed that inflation and unemployment are stationary at first difference while cointegration test and bound testing revealed an existence of long run relationship between the macroeconomic variables. The study revealed that the ARDL model outperforms the ECM model for both the real life data and simulated data and that there is evidence of both short and long run relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate in Nigeria. It also revealed that there is causality relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate. The study therefore recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should pursue monetary policy that is consistent with the maintenance of a realistic and stable inflation rate in order to reduce the unemployment rate in Nigeria and the government should formulates adequate economic policies to stimulates and sustain the economic growth.
  • ItemOpen Access
    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACT OF SOME MACRO ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON RATES OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi, 2018-08-19) Okoro, Ugochukwu Nzubechukwu Augustina
    This research work employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) proposed by Philips and Hansen and the error correction Model (ECM) to investigate the long-run and short- run determinants of unemployment rate in Nigeria. In order to achieve this annual data on unemployment rate, Interest rate, exchange rate and population growth from 1981 to 2016 was collected from Central Bank Statistical Bulletins and the World Bank Website. The Augumented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test revealed that the macroeconomics variables are stationary at first difference while the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test revealed that the variables are conintegrated. The long-run relationship of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and population growth on unemployment rate from FMOLS model revealed that the coefficients of exchange rate and population growth are positive significant in relation to unemployment rate while interest rate is negative and significant as it relates to unemployment rate. However, the coefficient of inflation rate is negative as it relates to unemployment but insignificant. The short run relationship among these macroeconomic variables revealed that the coefficient of the ECM (-1) is negative and statistically significant at 5% level which further indicates that the system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at the speed of 48.93% yearly. The estimated models are stable and free from serial correlation, multicollinearity and spurious regression. This study conclude that high exchange rate and population growth could lead to increase in unemployment rate in Nigeria. This study therefore recommends that the government should develop the industrial sector and non-oil sector boost export in Nigeria thereby reducing unemployment.
  • ItemOpen Access
    A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ARIMA AND ARFIMA IN THE PRESENCE OF AUTOCORRELATED ERROR TERMS
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI, 2018-08-03) Bulus, Ezekiel Awhigbo
    This research explored the ARIMA and ARFIMA modeling under autocorrelated error terms with two distributions namely, normal and uniform distribution. The study revealed that between ARFIMA and ARIMA, ARFIMA is best for long memory in this regard. The study use data of Inflation rate and Exchange rate of Nigeria from 1987 to 2016 collected from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and it further revealed that ARFIMA model has the lowest AIC and BIC values which align with the simulation analysis. More so, the study shows that ARFMA (1, 0.14, 0) can account for long memory for the inflation rate with normal distribution compare to ARIMA (1, 1, 0) whereas, ARFIMA (1, 0.15, 0) model can account for Long memory for uniform distribution compare to ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model of the same distribution. ARFIMA (1, 4.5 X 10-5, 0) model can account for long memory of Exchange rate with normal distribution compare to ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model of the same distribution and ARFIMA (1, 4.5 X 10-5, 0), can account for long memory with uniform distribution compare to ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model of the same distribution.
  • ItemOpen Access
    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGES MODEL ON RESAMPLED AND NON-RESAMPLED INFLATION TIME SERIES DATA FOR FORECASTING.
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI, 2018-08-16) David, Peter Oaya
    The study compared the efficiency of establishing of variance obtained from Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model for resampled inflation time series and actual inflation time series. Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), most efficient forecast was obtained. Results shows that the models fit on resampled inflation series produced higher AICs than the actual data. Thus the models fit on the actual data are considered better for forecast.
  • ItemUnknown
    APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL TECHNIQUES ON VOLUME OF PRODUCTS AT HABILA FOOD AND BEVERAGES COMPANY KANO, NIGERIA.
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI, 2019-12-18) Odey, Bassey Obule
    Controlling and improving Quality has become an important business strategy for many organisations, because a business that can delight customers by improving and controlling quality can dominate its competitors. Hence, this project work focused on the application of statistical quality control technique on volume of products at Habila Food and Beverage Company, Kano, Nigeria. The objective of this study is to determine if the production in Habila Food and Beverage Company is under control and capable. To achieve the aim and objectives of this project work, quality control data were collected through the secondary sources (that is directly from the Quality Control Department of the company) from different machine used by the company for can and bottle fillers and the respective statistical parameters such as the Means, Ranges, Standard Deviations, Center Line Control Limit, (CL), Upper Control Limit (UCL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL) were developed and analyzed for the company using statistical approach. The resulting Control Charts was also constructed using the parameters developed for better ix understanding and visibility. From the results, it was found that the Can and Bottle filler volume collated and analyzed using the Mean (X-bar) and R- Charts for Bottle fillers lies within the designed range of specifications, implying that the process is capable of producing acceptable product. However, it was also discovered that two (2) of the Can filler volume collated and analyzed using the Range (R - Chart) were out of control. These are attributed to assignable causes such as lack of personal training, poor mix, mechanical fault, etc, are to be subjected to process monitoring and evaluation so as to better their products.
  • ItemUnknown
    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN NIGERIA, BETWEEN 1998 – 2017
    (Department of Statistics,Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-09-10) Ileso, Ambrose Michael.
    This project work considered statistical analysis on cases and casualties of road traffic accident in Nigeria, between 1998 – 2017, and to achieve this research work, secondary data was collected from Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC). Poison and Negative Binomial Regression Models were used in the analysis of the data collected. On Poison Regression Model, the results revealed that from table 4.2.1, (Prob > = 0.000) < P-value at 0.005 and it shows that there is positive relationship between injured casualty and fatal, serious and minor cases of accidents. That means almost 61% Road Traffic Accidents (RTA) cases leads to injured people involved in accidents and the result also shows that accident is on an increased rate. While, on Negative Binomial Regression Model, it revealed that between the casualty (killed) and cases of road accident (fatal, serious and minor), that the model’s fit is good and the p-values are positive with Fatal, Serious and Constant which are significant (P-values < 0.05), but minor value is not significant with (P-value = 0.986 > 0.05). In addition, fatal and serious cases are positively related to killed persons, while minor cases is negatively related to killed persons. These tells us that there is a positive relationship between the resultant effect of accident (casualty killed) and the nature of accident (fatal serious and minor). Government should embark on comprehensive construction and rehabilitation of all roads in the states and all unworthy vehicles should not be allowed to ply highways unless proper evidence of repairs is provided. The traffic signs and codes should be placed in strategic areas to instruct road users. Severe punishment should be enacted for traffic law violators, especially drunkenness, excess speeding and overloading
  • ItemOpen Access
    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE REPORTED CASES OF SOME COMMUNICABLE DISEASE IN NASARAWA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA FROM THE YEAR 2002-2017
    (Department of Statistics,Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-10-10) Appolonia, Simon.
    Infectious disease is a major public health problem in sub –Sahara African countries. This project work examined the trend of tuberculosis, cholera, measles, hiv -aids and hepatitis diseases in Nasarawa local government area of Nasarawa State. Annual data from 2002 -2017 was collected from the LGA council records and the methods of analysis are poison regression and negative Binomial regression models. The results revealed non -significant annual increase of 0.4% and 0.2% in tuberculosis and cholera respectively. Furthermore, the results showed a significant annual decrease of 0.9%, 3.3% and 1.2% in measles, HIV-aids and hepatitis respectively. Lastly, the poison regression models failed the goodness of fit test while negative binomial regression models were used to take care of dispersion in mean problem. This project recommends that concerted effort should be made by government to reduce tuberculosis and cholera in Nasarawa LGA of The State.
  • ItemOpen Access
    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SOME DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS IN ZANGON KATAF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OF KADUNA STATE
    (Department of Statistics,Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-09-10) Jonah, Justus Yusuf.
    This study is focused on Statistical Analysis of Some Demographic Problems in Zangon Kataf Local Government of Kaduna State using women age structure of child bearing age (15-49). Their mortality trend using descriptive statistics was also examined. Data used in the study was collected from general hospital in Zangon-Kataf LGA with emphasis on maternal and infant mortality rate. Regression analysis (Multiple regression) was computed. The result obtained revealed that the rate of infant and maternal mortality is fluctuating comparing the rate from 2008 to 2017. The general fertility rate was high in all years, but higher in 2016(1469.4). The age specific death rate was found low mostly within the age, 20-24, and 25-29 and high mostly within age 40+. The post-neonatal mortality rate was also found to be high in most cases compared to neonatal mortality rate except in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2015 where neonatal mortality rate was higher.
  • ItemOpen Access
    ARIMA AND ARIMAX ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL, TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY ON SOME SELECTED CROPS IN NASARAWA STATE
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS FACULTY OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCE, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2019-12-06) Musa, Salisu Auta
    This study investigated the effects of climate factors (rainfall, temperature, and humidity) on crops production (yam, rice and maize) in Nasarawa state using ARIMA and ARIMAX model. The descriptive statistics shows that all the variables are normally distributed and Augmented Dickey Fuller test shows that all variables are stationary at first difference. The results indicate that both rainfall and temperature were negatively and significantly related to yam production but humidity was positively and significantly related to yam. It was also revealed that rainfall and temperature were positively and significantly related to rice but humidity was negatively related. It was revealed that rainfall and temperature are negative significant related to maize but humidity is positive significant related. This means an increase in rainfall and temperature will lead to decrease in the production of maize but an increase in humidity will lead to increase the production of maize in the state. The research revealed that ARIMAX performed better in yam production since R2 0.9902 > 0.9359, the ARIMA performed better in production of rice (R2 0.9789 < 0.9937) and maize (R2 0.08582< 0.2714
  • ItemOpen Access
    POISSON AND NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION MODELS ON ROAD TRAFFIC CRASH (A CASE KEFFI-LAFIA ROAD) 2006- 2015
    (DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS , NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI,, 2018-08-12) ISHAKU, AYUBA