CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION AND ADAPTATION IN NIGERIA’S GUINEA SAVANNA: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM FARMERS IN NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA

Nigeria’s guinea savanna produces the bulk of the food consumed in the country and climate change is adversely affecting agriculture in the area. Farmers in the area respond differently to climate change based on their perception. Yet, studies that systematically link farmers’ perception on climate change to scientific data from meteorological stations are rare in Nigeria’s guinea savanna. Much rarer are studies that consider the simultaneity in the adaptation decisions of the farmers. This study therefore aimed at analysing farmers’ perception in comparison with meteorological data and the determinants of adaptation efforts of crop farmers in the areas with data from Nasarawa State of Nigeria. To achieve this aim, the study combined time-series data on climatic variables obtained from a weather station and cross-sectional data from 160 smallholder farmers selected from the area. The study applied descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and multivariate probit model in analysing data collected. The study showed reduction in volume of rainfall and significant increase in surface temperature with the farmers having firm perception of these changes. The farmers responded to the changes in temperature and rainfall by choosing adaptation strategies such as use of improved crop varieties, soil and water conservation, tree planting, changing dates of sowing and tillage options, irrigation, diversifying their means of livelihood, and farmland management. Interestingly, these strategies were complementary and farmers’ socioeconomic and institutional characteristics significantly determined adaptation in the area. Therefore, considering farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics and improving the institutions will help in future and planned adaptation efforts of governments.