Odunukwe, Adaora Darlingtina2023-12-142023-12-142019-12-12A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI IN PARTIAL FUFFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE OF MASTERS IN SCIENCE (M.Sc.) IN STATISTICShttps://keffi.nsuk.edu.ng/handle/20.500.14448/6300Nigeria faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem somehow slows down the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in Africa including Nigeria. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Nigeria becomes very important for the government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in the country. This study utilizes seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) to forecast inflation rates in Nigeria. Using monthly inflation data from January 1999 to December 2018, we discover that SARIMA ( ) ( ) can represent very well the data behaviour of inflation rate in Nigeria. Based on the selected model i.e. SARIMA ( 1,1,1) (0,0,1) we obtained at twelve (12) month forecast of inflation rates in Nigeria outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2019 to December 2019). The forecast results show a decreasing pattern and the accuracy of forecasts measure showed that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 3.56% and Theil‟s inequality coefficient (U-statistic) is 0.018enThesis