TRADING VOLUME AND STOCK RETURN DYNAMICS IN THE NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET: A GRANGER CAUSALITY APPROACH

Return-volume relationships are of common interest as they may unearth dependencies that can form the basis of profitable trading strategies, and this has implications for market efficiency. This study investigates the dynamics of relationship between trading volume and returns of Nigerian capital market. The study employs Granger causality tests to examine dynamic (causal) return- volume relation using daily stock data of 27 equities listed on the floor NSE for the period January 2009 to December 2010. The empirical results indicate, in general, a mild causal relation between stock returns and trading volumes for individual assets but on the overall, we find a weak evidence of a dynamic (causal) relation running from trading volume to market return. Based on the findings, the study recommends, among others, that other economic variables such as inflation rate, interest rate and firms’ characteristics such as sectorial and industrial classification should be considered when forecasting short term returns of Nigerian capital market.