Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misspecification

Date

2021-08-09

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Department of Mathematics, Nasarawa State University Keffi

Abstract

The stochastic SIR household epidemic model is well discussed in [3]>, (4], [5] and also in [I] by assuming that the infection period distribution is known. Sometimes this may wrongly be assumed in the model estimation and hence the adequacy of the model fitness to the final size data is affected, we examined this problem using simulations with large population size and theoretical parameters in which the final size data is first simulated with exp(4.1) infectious period distribution and estimated with P(2,4.1/2) infectious period distribution and vice The estimates of the two dimensional mjodels are further explored for a range of local and global infection rates with corresponding prpportion infected and found to be biased and imprecise.

Description

Keywords

Final size epidemic, Infectious period distribution, Maximum likelihood estimates, Misclassi- fication probabilities.

Citation

Umar, M.A. (2021). Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misspfecification

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