ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY OF CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA.

Date

2021-05-17

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DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI

Abstract

Climate variability is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century and poses threat to agricultural dependent economies. Developing economies are at disadvantage as they stand to experience some of the severe consequences. It is against this background that this study assessed the vulnerability of cereal crops production s climate variability in Nasarawa State, Nigeria with the aim of determining which climatic parameters creates the vulnerable conditions and spatially locate where their effect is most/least pronounced. Data covering 21 years period were obtained on climatic variables and cereal crops (rice, maize and sorghum) production in the State, from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency; United State National Air Space Administrations website and Nasarawa State's Agricultural Development Programme. The data were analysed using descriptive (mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation) and inferential (linear multiple regression model) statistics in SPSS (version '23) and the trend function in Microsoft Excel 2613. Findings revealed that between 1997 and 2017, inter-annual average maximum temperatures; average minimum temperature; average' wind speed and average dew point temperature assumed increasing trend while total rainfall and average relative humidity experienced a downward trend. Variability in climate of the State was mostly due to the activities of rainfall which had coefficient of variation 13.79% while the least fluctuation was recorded in minimum temperature with coefficient of variation, 2.4%. The three cereal crops production showed rising and falling trends with generally increasing trend for, the * 21 years period. Maximum temperature and total rainfall had significant negative effect on production. Similarly, Relative humidity had negative effect on production of the cereal crops, however, its effect on rice production was found to be non significant for maize. Minimum temperature had positive significant effect on the three crops while wind speed had non significant positive effect on them. Although dew point temperature equally had positive effect on the cereal crops, it had no significant effect on rice production during the study period. Climate variability in the State accounted for 83.5% fluctuation in sorghum production, 73.2% in maize and 68.7% in rice. The cereal crops were found to be vulnerable to climate variability in the northwards LGAs of the State and marginally vulnerable in the southwards LGAs due to the combined effects of the activities of average maximum temperature, total rainfall and average relative humility. It was concluded that cereal crops production in the State are merely and marginally vulnerable to climate variability with increasing maximum temperature, changing patterns of rainfall and relative humidity which are often the most important variables in determining climate variability of a place. South and West Senatorial Districts'boost the greatest opportunity for cereal crops production in the study area while the North District poses the greatest threat. Agricultural Extension Officers (AEOs) should be deployed, particularly to the North Senatorial District and the North-Central parts of the West Senatorial District, to guide farmers through routine visits and sensitization programmes on variability in maximum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity characteristics; use of farm inputs and monitoring of. crop-climate relationship in order to achieve improved cereal crops production.

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Citation

A THESISSUBM3TTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY KEFFI, IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT