EFFECTS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON RICE PRODUCTION IN LAFIA, NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA

Date

2021-02-09

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DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY, KEFFI

Abstract

The study assessed the effects of rainfall variability on rice production in Lafia, Nasarawa State, Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to examine the trend of rainfall in the study area, examine the variation in rice production in the study, assess the relationship that exist between rice production and rainfall in the study area, and evaluate the effects of rainfall variation on rice production in the study area. The study covered a time frame of eighteen years, between the year 2000 and 2017. The research design adopted in the study was the ex post facto and analytical research design. Data used in the study were secondary data on rainfall, rice production, rice yield, and area of land cultivated per hectare, sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET), and Nasarawa State Agricultural Development programme. The data were analysed using trend analysis, standardized coefficient of Skewness, Kurtosis, regression, and correlation analyses. The analyses revealed a positive variation in rainfall trend between 2000 and 2017 at 65%, while the highest amount of annual rainfall was recorded in the 2012 at about 6824.14mm. The result also revealed that the highest level of rice production in the study area was in the year 2017 at 271.2mt, with an area per hectare cultivated at 149.37a/ha. The trend of rice yield per hectare shows a decreasing trend in rice yield in the study area, at a variation of 18% yield per hectare over the time frame under study, with 2014 recording the highest in rice yield in the study area at 2.74mt/ha. Result of the inferential statistical analysis shows a strong positive linear correlation between rainfall and rice yield in the study area at R=0.951. The regression analysis shows that 90% of the variation in rice production is explained by the variation in rainfall, and the area of land cultivated, r2=0.904. The F-s lad sties (70.66) was found to be greater than the critical Fslatislics probability of0.000 < 0.05. Hence the null hypothesis of the study was rejected. The study concludes that rainfall variability is found to have significant impact on rice production in Lafia Local Government Area of Nasarcnva State between 2000 and 2017, and thus recommended that there is need to educate farmers and farm agents on the realities and effect of climate change and adaptive measures that can be taken. This includes better and practicable environmental policies, improved agricultural techniques, alternative source of water such as irrigation farming, and mulching.

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Citation

BEING A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, NASARAWA STATE UNIVERSITY KEFFI, IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.SC.) IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT