Browsing by Author "Maijamaa, Bilkisu"

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    Adjusted-Program-Budget Marginal-Analysis for Student Development Activity Planning and Budget Allocation
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-06-03) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Muhammad, Engku Nazri
    Setting priorities and making decisions on allocation and reallocation of university resources based on the direction of the university as translated in its strategic plan must be executed with transparency and accountability and will be of great importance. It is becoming even more crucial, particularly for universities in Malaysia with the recent budget cut imposed by the Malaysian government. In this paper, we proposed an implementation of Program-Budget Marginal-Analysis (PBMA) which is currently being employed for strategic budget planning in the health industry to be applied for the university strategic budget plan as part of the overall strategic planning process. Firstly, the similarities between the steps in PBMA with the steps involved in planning and executing the university strategic plan were studied. Next, the existing PBMA was adjusted and modeled to suit the needs of the steps involved in selecting and allocating budget for the students of UABC’s 2017 development activities. The outcome of this implementation using 0-1 integer programming model showed that the targeted achievements could be realized within the allocated budget that was provided by the university. This adjusted-PBMA will be useful and suitable to be implemented by organizations with key performance indicator-oriented programs and having limited budget allocation issues.
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    Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach on the Effect of Monetary Policy in Nigerian Banking Sector
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2021-10-01) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Kolade, Anna
    Healthy banking system is determined by the amount of money supply which can be mentioned through various monetary policy instruments. A lot of study has shown studies from other countries on various monetary policies used with scanty literature as it relates to Nigeria. And this research is aimed at looking at the Nigerian scenario. Method used for this study is empirical on the effect of monetary policy on banking in Nigeria. Time series data from 2004-2019 was used with an autoregressive distributed lag approach and error correction mechanism. The findings from this study are: there is an evidence of significant relationship between the dependent and the explanatory variables with a long-run relationship between credit reserve ratio and money supply on bank loans and advance while other variables such as monetary policy rate (MPR) and liquidity ratio (LQR) are not significant on bank loans and advances in Nigeria. The error correction mechanism reveals the existence of cointegration , stating that there is long run relationship among the dependent and the explanatory variables. Structural changes in monetary policy is significant on bank loans hence suggesting a significant effect on bank loans and advances. This research serves as a great relevance to policy makers which implies monetary authorities should review and formulate an efficient policy such as fiscal policy to help boost bank industries in Nigeria.
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    BUDGET ALLOCATION FOR OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE OF A UNIVERSITY THROUGH ADJUSTED-PROGRAM-BUDGET MARGINALANALYSIS
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2019-03-01) Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    Sesuatu perancangan strategik yang dibangunkan oleh universiti-universiti di serata dunia, termasuk di Malaysia, digunakan sebagai indikator utama kemajuan menggunakan petunjuk-petunjuk prestasi utama (KPIs) dalam mencapai dan memperlengkap universiti dengan cabaran keperluan pendidikan di alaf ini. Malangnya sesetengah universiti merangka strategi khusus bagi mencapai KPIs mereka tanpa mengambil kira kekangan sumber-sumber yang ada. Secara khususnya, kos dan kos marginal ke arah pencapaian KPIs kurang diberi tumpuan. Justeru, kajian ini mencadangkan pelaksanaan program analisis marginal bajet terlaras (PBMA terlaras), satu pendekatan yang digunapakai dengan sedikit pengubahsuaian pada PBMA yang sedia ada, untuk mengimbangi keduadua output kewangan dan kualiti secara telus ke arah peruntukan bajet sedia ada yang lebih baik bagi mencapai KPIs. Pertamanya, persamaan di antara langkah-langkah di bawah PBMA dan langkah-langkah yang telibat dalam merangka pelan strategik bagi sesebuah universiti dikenalpasti. Kemudian, beberapa pengubahsuaian dilakukan dengan mencadangkan penggunaan kos marginal dan analisis kos akibat bagi menggantikan pendekatan kualitatif sedia ada dalam menentukan keutamaan strategi, serta penggunaan model pengaturcaraan integer (Model IP) untuk proses pengagihan bajet. Hasilnya adalah satu cadangan model yang baharu iaitu PBMA terlaras. Untuk mengilustrasi kebolehgunaan model PBMA terlaras ini, satu kajian kes berkaitan agenda pembangunan pelajar di Universiti Utara Malaysia bagi mencapai tahap enam bintang dalam penarafan SETARA telah dilaksanakan. Enam model IP yang sesuai telah dibentuk. Keputusan optimum telah diperoleh, dibincang, dan dibuat perbandingan. PBMA terlaras ini adalah bermanfaat dan sesuai untuk organisasi-organisasi berorientasikan program yang berKPIs dan mempunyai bajet yang terhad
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    CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT 4.0 AS A STRATEGY TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND EFFECTIVE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEMS
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa Sate University Keffi., 2017-09-08) Adehi, Mary Unekwu; Chaku, Shammah Emmanuel; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    The paper examines a shift from focusing on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to focusing on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the implications for developing countries, and the support that Capacity Development 4.0 (CD 4.0) could provide to BIG data. CD 4.0 reflects on the political economy of main stakeholders. Past policies show that there is a clear need for outside support of data ecosystems in developing regions. However, some constraining factors prevent this. They include, the existence of limited incentives to invest in data ecosystems by development co-operation providers. Also, the lack of government support for the idea of a high-quality and transparent data ecosystem in some developing countries. These constraints are catered for in CD 4.0. The paper considers areas that developing nations might prioritize and how these could contribute to the broader follow-up and review frame work proposed by PARIS21 strategy towards effective use of bigger and better data for better policies and ultimately better lives.
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    A Class of Block Multi-Step Methods for the Solutions of Ordinary Differential Equation (Ode)
    (Department of Mathematical Science, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2016-04-13) Nweze, N.O.; Chaku, Shammah Emmanuel; Offiong, M.N.; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    In this research, an attempt is made to derive a self starting block procedure for some K-step linear multi-step methods (for K=1, 2 and 3), using Chebyshev polynomial as the basis function. The continuous interpolant were derived and collocated at grid and off-grid points to give the discrete methods used in block and applied simultaneously for the solution of non stiff initial value problem.The regions of absolute stability of the methods are plotted and are shown to be A (α) stable. The methods for K=2 and K=3 were experimented on initial value problems and the results reveal that the newly constructed block methods have good error stability and are efficient.
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    Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19), is Global Recession Evitable?
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2020-04-21) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Nweze, N.O.; Bagudu, Hauwa Daniyan
    COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease-2019) is regarded as a public health emergency of international concern. Patients contracting the severe form of the disease constitute approximately 15% of the cases [WHO). The covid- 19 is affecting 203 countries and territories around the world. An epidemiological threat such as COVID-19 can have destructive effect on the economy.it is of great importance not to focus only on the epidemiological profile of the virus but also its impact on the economy. As much as economists think about risk-taking as a key driver of the economy, an economy only works if risks are largely known. With the impact of the covid-19 on travel services, durable expenditure, on supply chain and on social isolation (high skilled working from home, home schooling) and impact on demand and supply. On the bases of the listed impact on the economy global recession seems inevitable, there is also possibility of emerging markets. The overall demand effect is probably higher than the initial supply shock. There will be uncertainties, panic, a lot of panic buying and lock-down policies is a key to drive large drop in demand. The investment in a lot of firms especially the small and young firms, spending for households such as rent and mortgagor’s depend largely on cash flow. Large drop in demand will lead to force closure in a lot of firms and this will lead to an increase in lay-offs and hence further drop in consumption, and sadly the economy leads to depressing loop.
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    COVID-19, LEARNING & DIVIDENDS
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2020-05-30) Adehi, Mary Unekwu; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    The era of coronavirus pandemic (November 2019 to June 2020) has been a traumatic period for all countries around the globe. It was a very sober period because the virus is a novel one, and mortality and infection rates were on very rapid increase while scientists battled with treatment measures as well as vaccine discoveries to quell the pandemonium. The home front and life style in general changed, while the big question is, was there a benefit? People generally embraced virtual meetings to be able to interact and move on with life. The 16 Plus school in Lagos Nigeria was not left out of these meetings, as such, during one of such virtual meetings for the end of semester assembly, 30th May, 2020, we presented this paper to 65 members of staff, 10 parents and 25 graduating students (age 16 and above) with an objective to identify some benefits of the pandemic period. Some methods that were adopted to extract information for this paper include google search of periodicals. It is really nice to note that despite all odds, ‘lemonades were made from lemons’ in covid-19 era.
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    The Impact of COVID-19 on Nigeria Consumer Price Index (CPI)
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2021-08-31) Agboluaje, Abraham Ayodele; Akeyede, Imam; Audu, Buba; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    This study models the Nigeria Consumer Price Index (CPI) and forecasts its accuracy with COVID-19 impact on the data. The CPI data is homoscedastic and having heteroscedastic in nature and as such it is modelled using models such as Autoregressive (AR) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), Threshold GARCH, ExponentialGARCH and Power ARCH. This study compares these models using available data for Nigeria and found the AR as the model of best fit according to the minimum information criteria. The dynamic forecast evaluation reveals that GARCH-N has the minimum forecast residuals by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) while AR has the minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) among the models. On average AR has the minimum forecast residuals. Therefore, employing AR model for modelling and forecasting Nigeria CPI which results in low inflation rate when compared with the results of other models considered. This can improve the economy of the nation.
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    On Share Frailty Cure Model: An Application On Cervical Cancer
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2016-03-11) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Muhammad, Engku Nazri
    Survival analyses are greatly used in medical research especially frailty models which are mostly used to account for heterogeneity in time-to-event. Over the years treatment of cancer has progressed with some patients being cured from different type of cancer. Survival analysis is more focused on subjects that are less at risk of recurrences, metastasis or death after the first treatment as these set of subjects are regarded as being cured. The general assumption of standard frailty model is that all subjects have the same frailty. These assumptions ignore the heterogeneity of such frailties and will lead to incorrect results and conclusions. To address the identified deficiencies in previous studies, this research will propose a shared frailty cure model. Shared frailty assumes that within a cluster the value of frailty term is improved with constant and common frailty to all subjects in the same group clusters by measuring the correlation between event times within the cluster, hence representing changes over time in clusters or population heterogeneity. These structures can be achieved by introducing covariates that are rank specific by the process Shared frailty model, addressing the weakness of the cure frailty model by considering the homogeneity in groups or clusters were failure can be similar by having the same frailty.
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    On Survival of Hiv Patients Using Share Frailty Model
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2016-04-19) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Chaku, Shammah Emmanuel; Adehi, Mary Unekwu; Modu, Babagana
    In a situation of terminal event of death happening during follow-up period to preclude further occurrence for recurrent event, the shared frailty model is used considering proportional hazard model for the recurrent and terminal process. Covariates effect taken into account are the ART status of entry, number of medication taken and CD4PepBase of the HIV patient and dependence modeled by the shared frailty model on survival. Human immunodeficiency virus has now reduced from a fatal disease to a chronic disease due to a high rate of antiretroviral treatment ART. ART helps in reducing the viral load and hence bringing mortality due to HIV/AIDS to the lowest minimum. Factors associated with mortality in HIV has significantly studied in the most literature, less attention given to the stages of HIV at which the ART began about the survival time. The awareness and risk factors for mortality at each stage of HIV on when the ART starts for a subject considered in this paper. The research aimed at constructing appropriate measures on stages at which the ART is started to the survival time is evaluated using a shared frailty model to account for heterogeneity within groups of stages of HIV subject.
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    On the Effects of COVID-19 outbreak on the Nigerian Stock Exchange performance: Evidence from GARCH Models
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2020-04-24) Adenonmon, Monday Osagie; Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Owoicholofu, Daniel
    COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has caused huge death and has spread to almost all the parts of the world. There are speculation that most of the world economy and financial markets would be affected due to lockdown and social distancing. The first case of COVID-19 was first identified in Nigeria on 27th February 2020 and this study examines the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the performance of the Nigeria stock exchange using historical data covering 2nd March 2015 to 16th April, 2020 sourced from a secondary source. This study considered the COVID-19 period from 2nd January 2020 to 16th April 2020, the results revealed a loss in stock returns and high volatility in stock returns under the COVID-19 period in Nigeria as against the normal period under study. In addition, Quadratic GARCH (QGARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models with dummy variable were applied to the stock returns shows that the COVID-19 has had negative effect on the stock returns in Nigeria. The study recommended that political and economic policy such as stable political environment, incentive to indigenous companies, diversification of the economy, flexible exchange rate regime be implemented so as to improve the financial market and to attract more and new investors to the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
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    Optimal Budget Allocation for University Research and Publication Agenda through Integer Programming
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2017-09-20) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Muhammad, Engku Nazri; Bakar, Abu Engku
    For the past few years, government-funded universities in Malaysia faced an uphill battle to strategize their management budget due to significant budget cut by the Malaysian Government. One portion of the budget will be spent towards achieving the key performance indicators (KPIs) set by the universities to achieve their annual targets. Unfortunately, some universities set up their specific strategies to achieve the KPIs without ample consideration to the limited available resources where less attention is channeled to the cost of achieving the KPIs. Setting priorities and making decisions on allocation and reallocation of resources based on the direction of the strategies must be executed with transparency and accountability and will be of great importance. In this paper we illustrate how integer programming was applied to allocate budget based on the KPIs set for one of the government-funded Malaysian universities’ (U-XYZ’s) research and publication agenda. Two models were developed and successfully solved. The first model was to determine the total budget needed if all the KPIs were to be achieved while the second model was to distribute the allocated budget set by U-XYZ, for all the activities planned for the agenda. The result showed that in order to achieve the target, U-XYZ has to increase its budget allocation by RM2.164 million. Otherwise, U-XYZ can only expect to obtain 1.578 out of 1.593 points that is required to be achieved.
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    Ordinal Logistic Regression for Predicting the Effects of Some Variables Affecting Student’s Academic Performance
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2019-09-11) Sidi, Shamasu; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    The difficulty that leads to failure of students to attain a good higher performance in University lately can’t be overstressed. Regardless of the benefit connected to student’s performance, academic analysts have shown it in their different papers that there is a decline in students’ achievement. Explorers had additionally demonstrated that there are great deals of components dependable for this pattern. Utilizing the information gotten from a questionnaire from students of a University. Sex, Communication skills, Guidance, Proximity of student to school, Learning facilities, Pear group, Lack of learning materials and Family stress of students are inspected to the components that seem to contribute to student’s execution. Ordinal Logistic Regression (proportional odds model) is utilized to model the information and the output reveal that sex, communication, proximity to school, Peer group, Learning Facilities of understudies isn’t a determinant component of final grade that students may accomplished at graduation. This research finds that there is equal chance for both male and female students to graduate from university with best class of degree, hence. It is also established that the highest chance of graduating with best Class of degree is gotten by students who were giving proper guidance. Most of these students are giving a well proper care both academically, and financially which contribute to their high performances in their various departments. It has also seen that the model for family stress has the highest clarification for the variations in the CGPA (final grade of students). Hence a policy should be recommended to encourage students with various understanding of different disciplines to study at their own course of interest and government’s strategy on education should be centered on the two sexual orientations rather than exceptional consideration generally given to female students.
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    Pre-emptive Integer Programming As a Method Achieving Priotization for Decision Making
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2019-02-23) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Muhammad, Engku Nazri
    With limited availability of resources, an approach to moderate both financial and quality output with transparency to allocate the available budget for better decision making is of great importance. Budget allocation on strategies is needed, Preemptive Integer programming model is proposed in this research paper to optimize the budget allocated by organizational management. In the model, marginal analysis is estimated in the form of rating by each strategy with respect to the amount of money spent on the strategy for previous year was used as a base, calculated and used as either the parameter for the respective variable in the objective function or the constraints in the models. The optimal results obtained were discussed and compared. This preemptive integer programming as a method achieving Priotization for decision making proves useful and suitable for organisations with strategies used as oriented programs to improve organizational output with limited availability of resources
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    Program-Budget Marginal-Analysis for University Strategies concept of Planning and Execution
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-06-22) Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Muhammad, Engku Nazri
    Research addressing budgeting allocation planning on budget allocation and execution planning on Priotization of strategies are scanty in literature. This study presents program-budget marginal-analysis for university budget planning and execution aimed at priotizing budget allocation on strategies used for improving university rating. The research will illustrate the program-budget marginal-analysis with little adjustment to suit the university strategic budget allocations. This paper proposes a conceptional frame work for budget planning execution on university strategies. The framework for implementing PBMA will identify the total amount of available resources or funding allocated to priorities, examination of the current allocation activity, evaluation of benefit of cost of expansion with regards to both existing and new introduced strategies, in any of the existing services in use, which is effective with fewer resources allocation. Alternatives to be allocated fewer resources with greater effectiveness included in the priotized list. The budget allocation has the potential to maximize efficiency of each strategic allocation for improving the university rating.
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    Raw Materials Optimization in a Bread Making Factory: An R Implementation
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa Sate University Keffi., 2020-08-08) Chaku, Shammah Emmanuel; Goodwill, Gabriel Femi; Bello, Zubaida Ramalan; Maijamaa, Bilkisu; Adehi, Mary Unekwu
    This study tries to demonstrate the application of linear programming methods in a bread manufacturing industry. The concept of Simplex Algorithm; an aspect of linear programming was deployed to allocate raw materials to some competing variables (Big Loaf, Medium Loaf and Small Loaf) in Crystal Bakery, Keffi, for the purpose of profit maximization. The simplex algorithm was implemented in R, where codes were written to carry out iterations. From the result of analysis, it was gathered that approximately 40 units of Big loaf, 180 units of medium loaf and 0 units of small loaf be produced to achieve a profit of around N23,000. Also, it was seen that most of the profit came from the sales of the medium loaf.
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    Real-Time Intelligent Framework for Detecting Malaria Outbreak
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2018-07-14) Modu, Babagana; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    Occurrence of malaria out break in developing countries have pose social and economic problem to the populace. Despite effort for preventive measures, by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and other health organisation agencies, there are a lot of uncertainty regarding where and when the outbreak of malaria will strike remains a key challenges. Several works were presented applying wide range of techniques towards reducing the incidence of malaria out break. The out break of malaria parasite is still on the high rate due to inadequate mechanism for tracking, detecting and preventing the outbreak in advance. This research seeks to propose a framework using real-time incidence of malaria out break to monitor the pattern of incidences of the out break. This proposed framework using realtime statistical control charts such as cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exoponential weighted moving average (EWMA) will be of great importance to hospitals, public health officials and policy makers with prior information to better prepare in anticipation of malaria outbreak for better management and planning