Department of Statistics

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Browsing Department of Statistics by Author "Agboluaje, Abraham Ayodele"

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    The Impact of COVID-19 on Nigeria Consumer Price Index (CPI)
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University Keffi., 2021-08-31) Agboluaje, Abraham Ayodele; Akeyede, Imam; Audu, Buba; Maijamaa, Bilkisu
    This study models the Nigeria Consumer Price Index (CPI) and forecasts its accuracy with COVID-19 impact on the data. The CPI data is homoscedastic and having heteroscedastic in nature and as such it is modelled using models such as Autoregressive (AR) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), Threshold GARCH, ExponentialGARCH and Power ARCH. This study compares these models using available data for Nigeria and found the AR as the model of best fit according to the minimum information criteria. The dynamic forecast evaluation reveals that GARCH-N has the minimum forecast residuals by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) while AR has the minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) among the models. On average AR has the minimum forecast residuals. Therefore, employing AR model for modelling and forecasting Nigeria CPI which results in low inflation rate when compared with the results of other models considered. This can improve the economy of the nation.