Department of Statistics

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Browsing Department of Statistics by Author "Abdulrazaq, A.A."

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    Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Gold Prices on International Financial Markets
    (Department of Statistics, Nasarawa Sate University Keffi., 2020-07-05) Chaku, Shammah Emmanuel; Gabriel, F.G.; Abdulrazaq, A.A.; Adehi, Mary Unekwu; Timnan, B.N.
    Application of SARIMA model in modeling and forecasting average monthly gold prices was carried out in this study. Data on gold from January 2015 to December 2020 was obtained. Monthly adjusted close prices were used for the analysis. The gold price data was stationary after first difference (D = -3.8426, P = 0.02183< 0.05). SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)[12] was identified as the best model that fit the gold price data with minimum AIC and BIC. Forecast of gold prices from January, 2021 to December 2025 was obtained. Forecast shows a rise and fall of the average monthly gold price over the forecast period (2021-2025). The Forecast values were tested against actual values for January, 2021 to June, 2021. There was no significant difference between the actual gold prices against predicted values (t = 2.102, P = 0.07191< 0.05). Prospective investors should consider gold in their portfolios as a store of value and a diversification tool and cautious of the price fluctuation predicted in this study.